Crypto analyst Dark Defender (@DefendDark) has issued a bullish forecast for XRP, projecting a price surge above $5.85 based on a confluence of technical indicators and chart patterns. Despite recent market stagnation, the analyst highlights several key factors—including the application of Elliott Wave theory—that suggest a significant upward movement is imminent.
Why XRP Looks Still ‘Super Bullish’
According to Dark Defender, the XRP price is currently determined by three trend lines. Two of these trend lines form a symmetrical triangle pattern, while the third—a downward-sloping orange line—represents a long-term downtrend that XRP has recently broken above on the monthly chart.
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The symmetrical triangle, formed by two converging trendlines, shows a 4-year long period of consolidation. This pattern is generally considered a continuation pattern, meaning that the price is likely to continue in the direction of the existing trend upon breakout. In XRP’s case, the price has tried to break to the upside several times – thus far without success.
The third trendline, the downward-sloping orange line, has been acting as a significant resistance level for XRP since summer 2021. The fact that XRP has broken above this long-term downtrend line on the monthly chart is a strong bullish signal. This breakout suggests a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish, potentially leading to substantial price appreciation.
Integral to Dark Defender’s analysis is the application of Elliott Wave theory to XRP’s price action. The chart shared by the analyst displays an Elliott Wave count that suggests XRP is poised to enter a Wave 3 impulse move, historically the most powerful and extended wave in the five-wave trend sequence.
In this context, the analyst believes that XRP has completed Wave 2—a corrective phase characterized by downward price movement—and is now embarking on Wave 3. This wave is often marked by strong momentum and increased market participation, potentially explaining the anticipated surge above $5.85.
The projected target aligns with Fibonacci extension levels commonly associated with Wave 3 movements, providing a technical basis for the significant price increase. In the short term, the 70.2% Fibonacci price level at $0.6649 is the most crucial resistance for XRP. If this barrier breaks, wave 3 could be confirmed. A first major extension target would be the 161.8% Fibonacci level at $1.88. The ultimate target could be the 261.8% Fibonacci level at $5.85.
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The analyst also points out that the Heikin Ashi candles are currently averaging at $0.57 on the monthly chart. “When Heikin Ashi Candles (average-price candles, currently at $0.57) are considered, the monthly average price stays above the support level, which is critical for XRP to continue the momentum,” Dark Defender notes.
Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the monthly timeframe has printed a green dot, a bullish signal suggesting increasing upward momentum. The MACD is a momentum oscillator that helps traders identify potential trend reversals. A green dot typically signifies that the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, indicating a positive shift in momentum.
Ultimately, Dark Defender contends that XRP’s price action is largely independent of external news events, including developments related to the SEC lawsuit against Ripple. While acknowledging that such news can have a minor impact, the analyst argues that technical patterns and indicators hold more sway over XRP’s movements.
“As most expected, nothing happened after the appeal decision. XRP just were at the Ichimoku clouds top around $0.60+ levels and bounced back from there to $0.50+. I am Bullish; why? As I always highlight, XRP does not follow any news such as SEC. OK, they have a minor impact, but that’s it,” Dark Defender notes.
Based on the technical factors outlined—including the breakout above the long-term downtrend line, the significance of the symmetrical triangle, the importance of the Heikin Ashi monthly average price, bullish signals from the MACD, and the Elliott Wave count—Dark Defender is “super bullish” on XRP. The analyst anticipates that the asset will follow historical patterns leading to a price exceeding $5.85.
At press time, XRP traded at $0.53.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com