While Bitcoin struggles to extend gains, on-chain data shared by Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, on X shows increased movement of old coins. As the Bitcoin Average Dormancy chart shows, this trend recently hit a 13-year high.
More Old Whales Moving Coins
The Bitcoin Average Dormancy shows the average number of days each BTC has been dormant. On-chain data indicates that coins held for 3 to 5 years have changed hands and moved to new owners.
While there was movement, interestingly, data shows that they were not transferred to exchanges. Instead, it is highly likely that they were traded over the counter (OTC).
Usually, any transfer to centralized exchanges like Binance or Coinbase could suggest the intention of selling. The more coins hit these exchanges, especially from whales, the higher the chance of price dumping. However, if trades are made via OTC, the impact on spot rates is negligible, which is a positive for bulls.
Further analysis of these transfers using the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator suggests that whales moving them made decent profits. Historically, whenever whales dump and register profits, prices tend to dip.
Will Bitcoin Prices Retest All-Time Highs
However, in a post on X, one analyst says prices will likely increase because of the impact of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These derivatives are like a buffer against price drops, considering the pace of inflows in the past weeks.
Spot ETFs allow institutions to gain regulated exposure to BTC. Coupled with decreasing outflows from GBTC, the odds of prices rising remain elevated.
According to Lookonchain data, GBTC unloaded 750 BTC on April 23. However, Fidelity and other eight spot ETF issuers bought 1,513 BTC on behalf of their clients. Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers sell shares representing BTC holdings. These coins can be purchased from secondary markets like Binance, via OTC platforms, or directly from miners.
BTC prices remain muted and capped below $68,000, representing April 13 highs.
To define the uptrend, there must be a high volume expansion above this liquidation line, reversing recent losses.
Even so, looking at the BTCUSDT candlestick arrangement in the daily chart, bulls must break above all-time highs for a clear trend continuation. Ideally, the uptick above $73,800 and the current range should be with expanding volumes, confirming the presence of buyers.
Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView
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