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Bitcoin’s resurgence in April has positioned it for a potential breakout toward its all-time high—provided one key technical level continues to hold. That’s the core takeaway from the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, which offers a data-rich breakdown of BTC’s recent market dynamics and the underlying structural forces that may guide its trajectory as macroeconomic pressures persist.
Bitcoin Eyes All-Time High
The report, dated May 5, 2025, reveals that Bitcoin closed April with a 14.08% monthly gain, outperforming both its historical average return of 13% and the median return of 7.3% for the month. The rebound is particularly significant given the market’s early-April volatility, which saw Bitcoin plunge 32% from its all-time high of $109,590 to a low of $74,501—marking the steepest correction of the current cycle.
This sharp downturn, intensified by macroeconomic headwinds such as trade tensions, appeared to signal a deeper structural breakdown. Yet, what followed was an aggressive recovery that Bitfinex analysts argue is indicative of a resilient and well-supported market.
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“Bitcoin has shown notable resilience relative to other risk assets,” the report notes, underscoring that the price has surged more than 32% from its April lows to local highs of $97,900. This rally, however, now faces a critical test: whether BTC can reclaim and sustain the $95,000 level, which Bitfinex identifies as “a critical pivot point, acting as the lower boundary of a three-month range that defined market structure between November 2024 and February 2025.”
The report emphasizes that holding above this threshold is not just a matter of sentiment but of structural significance. A successful consolidation above $95,000 would, according to the analysts, signal a shift back into bullish territory and could pave the way for a retest of the $109,590 all-time high. Failure to do so, however, “could turn the region into resistance once more,” with implications of a renewed correction.
Key to the current bullish thesis is Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost basis, which Bitfinex places at $93,340. This metric—representing the average acquisition price of coins held by recent market entrants—has historically served as a dividing line between bullish and bearish phases. “The ability to reclaim and now consolidate within this zone is an encouraging sign,” the report states, noting that sustained price action above this level would likely “convert this range into a new support base, reinforcing bullish sentiment.”
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Bitfinex underscores that “the significance of this level cannot be overstated.” If BTC remains above the STH cost basis, it would prevent a large cohort of recent buyers from slipping back into unrealised losses—an outcome that could otherwise intensify sell pressure. As the report succinctly frames it: “The next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this reclaim is the foundation of a new leg higher—or merely a local top.”
Why BTC Looks Strong
Beyond price levels and technical patterns, the report delves into on-chain data, offering a window into the conviction of long-term network participants. Miner reserves, a bellwether of internal market confidence, have remained strikingly stable. From December 2024 to May 2025, reserves rose marginally from 1,808,315 BTC to 1,808,674 BTC. Such stability, Bitfinex argues, “strongly suggests a deliberate holding strategy,” particularly given that miners often need to liquidate holdings to cover operational costs. Their continued restraint is interpreted as a signal of longer-term bullish expectations.
This miner behaviour gains further validation from the Puell Multiple, a widely observed profitability metric. The indicator, which compares daily miner revenues against the 365-day average, remains well below the 2.0 threshold that historically coincides with major sell-offs and local market tops. “Miners, by nature and necessity, are some of the most disciplined participants in the ecosystem,” Bitfinex reminds its readers. Their decision to continue holding through Bitcoin’s recent 32% recovery lends further credence to the thesis that the current rally is not merely reactive, but structurally supported.
In sum, the Bitfinex Alpha report positions the current BTC market as one defined by critical thresholds and cautious optimism. While the recovery from the April lows has been rapid and technically impressive, all eyes are now on the $93,340 to $95,000 range. If Bitcoin can maintain support above this zone, the report argues, it may have the structural footing necessary to resume its upward trajectory and test its all-time high.
At press time, BTC traded at $96,923.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com